Watching FP2 sales has become an OCD! Will they? Won’t they? Sell 15,000 by the end of September?!
First week sales averaged around 625 a day - but included all the people who’d been waiting in the traps for the starting gun.
Over the last three weeks sales averaged 124 a day. 51 days to go = maybe another 5000 sold? That’s “only” 12,400
I just hope there are enough people with:
a) a social conscience
b) a desire for a new high spec mobile
c) who don’t mind that it’s quite big and heavy and not very water-resistant
c) who have enough spare cash
d) and who don’t already have an FP1
Values represent the accumulated total (i.e. since thursday 16 July 12 am) number sold by the end of the day stated on the x-axis.
Note: The value for 17 August is an estimate, strongly helped by @gewuerzketchup’s tracking which I adapted just slightly to account for the (usually very limited) evening instant payment sales (adding 8 is an estimate).
I would welcome if Fairphone would give it some more push soon. Maybe send M. Miquel Ballester on a European road show? It seems his Berlin event went very well.
The first day of pre-orders I was scared not to be able to make it into the list of the first 15k because of the number’s rapid growth Now I’m worried that daily sales will decrease even a little more.
There may yet be some bulk sales to come… last time the Phone Co-op in the UK took an order of 1,000 I think with a preference for a further 1,000 (which I think they took).
Also, worth pointing out that there is a correlation between the sales numbers and the marketing campaigns. So I would expect another flurry as the campaign builds.
BTW, I also have felt a little OCD watching the numbers
Now that Fairphone made it halfway, i am somewhat confident they will reach there goals. However, to date, some important information is missing:
No cost breakdown
No definite info on Android/Google Apps/Root etc
Source code of FP2 apps not released to public
No info on alternative operating systems.
I guess this is also strategic: That information will probably grab the attention of tech sites and blog and continue to raise awareness. On the other hand, reading here, a lot of fairphone fans hesitate to buy before they have this information.
Selling like hot cakes today for some reason; 142 since yesterday evening and counting! Maybe the herd instinct has kicked in (well … if everyone else is buying one …).
I note the cooperative mobile are mentioning the FP2 on their site and taking “expressions of interest”, but they’re not listing it alongside their other handsets, promising they can supply one or advertising a price. If they will do an FP2 as a rental then I’m sure a lot more people would afford it. And it could be good for coop too if instead of handing them over to the lessee after 24months, they took them back and re-furbed for re-lease.
There is always a little “tuesday kick” which I think isn’t actually a bulk of orders being made all at once but the accumulated payments coming in from the days before (i.e. non-instant bank transfers). Obviously, if you order on friday, saturday or sunday and choose a slow payment option, your payment will only arrive on monday or (more likely) tuesday (or even later). In the first days of selling in July, I actually tracked the numbers several times a day and there was always a rapid increase in the counter between roughly 8 and 9 am – I guess someone at Amsterdam HQ is registering the payments then and entering these orders into the counter in the morning. The (far) fewer orders counted during the rest of day are probably solely those who choose an instant payment option. OCD fix for today √
maybe there are more reasons why people hesitate to preorder now:
Without cost-breakdown Fairphone asks people to trust them. There might be people that can read the logo: “Fairphone”, aknowledge the idea and know the story of FP1, but still want some evidence that the cost-breakdown for FP2 is still fair.
As said above, some people won’t preorder until they know what they are preordering (see ben’s post above).
Not everybody will spend more than 500€ right now, if he can spend them at the end of september and get the phone more or less at the same time (November). This could apply to people to that 500€ is still pretty much or that just try to get every cent out of their money. Others maybe just do not like spending more than 500€ as long as they are unsure if they sell 15000 and then may have to wait to get their money back.
Therefore I think, there are a lot of people out there waiting for the numbers to grow to an extend that it seems probable that they exceed 15000 and let others take the “risk”. Some of them may preorder at an early stage if the numbers grow over a certain extend and others will wait to the end of september because they do not want pay too early without clear benefit.
This is why I believe numbers will grow faster from mid-september on or maybe earlier if numbers exceed a point, let’s say 12000 at the beginning of sept, where most people think it’s probable to reach 15000. If the theory is right, numbers will grow even faster when preorders reach 14000…
It seems his Berlin event went very well.
Wished it was! 
Now I’m worried that daily sales will decrease even a little more.
is registering the payments then and entering these orders into the counter in the morning. The (far) fewer orders counted during the rest of day are probably solely those who choose an instant payment option. OCD fix for today √