I’ve got to say, I was hesitant of replacing my broken screen and super tired battery before I read about the possible Android 9 upgrade.
Changing phone because there’s no OS support does sound wasteful. Balancing personal environmental impact and data security is hard. It’s really two separate domains. Also, it is hard to estimate how risky it is to run outdated SW.
Anyhow, that’s what brought me here to ask about it. I didn’t contact the support in the end, by the way.
7% revenue from parts!? interesting!
… /* Let, the guess, begin! *\ …
Let’s say this applies for 2019.
2017 revenue was 11,7M€.
 I haven’t found a more recent figure.
2019 phone sales are twice as many in 2017.
So let’s say revenue in 2019 revenue is twice the 2017 revenue. That’s hopefully a low estimate.
Let’s assume that the cost breakdown of parts is similar to that of the FP3.
This means 16% of the revenue from parts is dedicated to “Product development and Impact Research,” which includes “long term software support.” That’s also probably a low estimate.
Okay, what about multiplying everything?
7% x 11,7M€ * 2 * 16% = 262 k€
That would be the amount of money “Product development and Impact Research” got from spare parts sales in 2019.
Now, how much does an Android upgrade development cost? and how does it compare to 262 k€?
Let’s try to give a generous estimate of that cost.
They have two developers working on it.
Let’s say they started working soon after Android 9.0, so in 2018, development is still ongoing in 2020 so all of 2019 could have seen Android 9.0 work.
Let’s say they both worked 100% on the topic.
How much do they earn? (Shall I create a ticket in the bugtracker to ask them? haha! err, anyhow…)
Well, how much though? Let’s say 60k€ each…? that sounds rather fair (haha!) already, doesn’t it?? Who knows. Alright! 75k€ each, it’s my last word!
So, times two for taxes and all.
75 k€ x 2 x 2 = 300 k€.
Also, there are other costs, although paying devs must account for like two thirds of the cost.
So, 300 k€ * 1,5 = 450 k€.
That’s way over the 262 k€ we had, and those were not even for Android upgrade dev only.
At least it’s the same order of magnitude.
So yeah, I guess spare parts alone aren’t enough to pay for the upgrade.
(I spent a long time on this. It’s a bit silly.)
 Impact Report Vol. 1 page 26 (paper)/14 (pdf) (Huh, is this supposed to be a paid document? It says 20€ on the first page.)