I think it’s high. Stefan did have good sources. I also think it will drop considerably by this winter.
That’s important, because even if Fairphone was planning to source new batteries – which, i am sure, they are not – it would probably take several months to get them, let’s simply assume four months ( which i think, would be pretty fast).
By then, even more apps will have stopped supporting the Fairphone 1 (In April, 89,6% of devices worldwide[!] had a newer Android version compared to the FP1, at the beginning of July, it was 91,7%. In Dezember, it might be over 95% worldwide.
And several more FP1’s will have irreparable defects not related to the battery (supply of used batteries and less demand for new batteries).
And then: Fairphone already replaced a good amount of batteries for the FP1/U on warranty. Those might be still working good. Let’s assume of the 20.000, about 18.000 are still using their phone in 4 months (optimistic, i think). Let’s also assume on third of them really needs a new battery (what does need a new battery mean? less then 70% of the original capacity?), that would be 6000 users.
How many of them would be willing to invest 20€ plus shipping in a new battery? I think optimistically, that would be maybe 4000 customers. That’s actually not a high number, taking into account a producer has to be found, batteries need to be tested, certified and shipped. It’s not a large number for chinese and taiwanese companies. All of that has to be supervised by an FP employee…
But: This are very shaky numbers. What if, in fact, only half of the batteries are actually needed? That would be a terrible waste of resources.
No, i think the only solution would be to convince a third party suplierer and seller based in europe to produce and sell batteries for the FP1. And i guess that will be pretty hard.
The FP1 is done, Fairphone is not a charity. It’s a social business, but also a for profit company. To prove it’s point, it has to be one. They made the only reasonable decision in stopping all efforts for the FP1. Let’s look forward to the future. And if you get rid of your FP1, give it away to enthusiasts in this forum or, at least, recycle it properly.