At some time in the future, Application Upgrades will require an update of Android. This also includes all the bundled apps that come with Android (e.g. Browser, Messages, Phone, etc). With Android 4.4, Google for example greatly updated the bundled Browser, and that also includes the WebView many applications are using. The version coming with 4.4 is a lot more recent then you would expect from the fairly low bump in version number, it is based on chromium and no longer WebKit, see [WebView for Android][1], [Android 4.4 KitKat, the browser and the Chrome WebView][2] and [Migrating to WebView in Android 4.4][3].
Also, have a look at the latest [Android Developer Dashboard][4]:
The following image taken from that page shows the distribution of Android version numbers amongst active devices.
Since September last year, devices with Android older then version 2.2, released in Mai 2010, are excluded because they no longer have access to the Play Store. That means, these devices are essentially excluded from Androids Ecosystem, only 3,5 years after the introduction of the OS version (given that it takes some months until the first devices with new Android versions come to the market, the lifespan is much shorter in reality).
In that graphic above, a large percentage of Android users are using a version comparable the one the Fairphone is using, which is Jelly Bean. However, keep in mind that these are numbers of devices sold, but usage numbers. More then a quarter active of devices are already running a newer version of Android, now.
Consider this: Like many enthusiasts, i get often asked when people buy a new Phone. Because I believe software support and updates is a crucial part in making a phone sustainable, i am in bad position to recommend Fairphones. When I preordered my Fairphone in May 2013, i hoped for support of recent Android Versions. When it finally arrived in Januar 2014, Android 4.2 was already legacy software. One Version behind the one i expected it arrive with (4.3 was my educated guess), and two versions behind the most recent android version (4.4 was released in october 2013). There were few devices shipping with Android KitKat (4.4) at the time and i hoped (i still hope) Fairphone will get 4.4 in some time.
This is ten months, almost a year ago. And Fairphone still has almost 8.000 devices in stock. I suggest it will be into 2015 until all these are sold. And if i would buy a Fairphone as a christmas present in december this year, the first devices with Android 5.0 Lollipop will be on the market. And a lot of devices will have got updates, see [Motorola][5], [Sony][6] or the Nexus devices (Full list here: [Areamobile][7]). At that time the Fairphone will be lower-middleclass spec wise and run an definitely outdated operating system. I do not think it would be fair to sell a 300+€ device with no outlook for a software update to current and future versions of Android.
I am not saying I want KitKat now, but I am saying that it will be hard for me to recommend a Fairphone to friends and family, many of them very interested in Fairphones idea. Especially if there are 99€ devices (like the Moto E) promised to get a Lollipop update. I want a clear support path with at least an Outlook for Android 4.4 if not 5.0.
I am not an Android developer, but a computer science student and hobby developer. And i know that the Fairphone is perfectly able to run Android 4.4 (Google even lowered the sys requirements for that compared to 4.2) and even 5.0. That makes is even harder for me to see that manufactures leave capable devices unsupported because they focus on more sales now more than a sustainable and fair relationship to their customers. Looking at you Mediatek. The Fairphone community might be more forgiving, but would you buy a Windows 7 Notebook now if you knew Windows 10 will not be supported next year? Is that not a form of planned obsolesce?
I still have a lot of faith in Fairphone. I like what you are doing and how you are doing it. I know you are dependent on Mediatek and others. It is still a bit sad and also annoying to see that “stable and secure” is somehow outplayed against “fresh and new”. I want both. And I know that it should be possible. One could read your post above in way that you no longer have Android OS updates like to KitKat or Lollipop on your Agenda? Or am i misreading that?
I think it is great of you to mention the work of developers bringing forward a CyanogemMod rom for Fairphone.
If Mediatek and others still prevent you from releasing Android 4.4 or later, this could be a way forward.
Thank you a lot for what you have done so far!
[1]: https://developer.chrome.com/multidevice/webview/overview
[2]: Android 4.4 KitKat - firt.dev
[3]: Build web apps in WebView | Android Developers
[4]: Distribution dashboard | Platform | Android Developers
[5]: Software Upgrade | Motorola Support DE
[6]: Sony presenterar nya innovationer vid IFA 2017 – inklusive de senaste ljud-, bild- och mobilprodukterna | Sony Sverige
[7]: PC Games Hardware (PCGH): Computer, IT Gaming, PC-Spiele